Digital Psychology & Behavioural Design · Part 2B — Scenario Thinking & Leverage Design: Playing with Futures

This module teaches you to think like a systems futurist: to anticipate behavioural futures before they happen, and to use leverage design to bend those futures toward human wellbeing.

Scenario thinking isn’t about predicting one future. It’s about designing readiness for several — and spotting where small levers change the course of behaviour at scale.

1. Scenario Thinking — Seeing Multiple Futures

In digital environments, behaviours don’t evolve linearly. A small tweak (a button colour, an algorithmic change, a policy shift) can create entirely new patterns.

Scenario thinking prepares you for that uncertainty. It asks: “What if the world around this product changed — how would human behaviour shift?”

Scenario Components

• Signal: a small emerging change (new law, trend, tool, meme).
• Driver: a deeper force behind that change (economics, tech, psychology).
• Trajectory: where it could go if amplified.
• Consequence: who wins, who loses, and how attention patterns shift.

Exercise — Build a 3-Signal Future

Pick any topic (AI, social media, gaming, education).

SIGNAL 1:
______________________
DRIVER:
______________________
TRAJECTORY:
______________________

SIGNAL 2:
______________________
DRIVER:
______________________
TRAJECTORY:
______________________

SIGNAL 3:
______________________
DRIVER:
______________________
TRAJECTORY:
______________________

WHAT DO THESE COMBINE INTO?
Describe that world in 3 sentences:
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
  

2. Leverage Design — Where Small Shifts Change Everything

Leverage design comes from systems theory: the idea that within any complex system, certain points of intervention yield massive effects.

In digital psychology, leverage can be:

• A setting that changes how users relate to time (screen time reminders, auto-logouts).
• A design rule that alters emotion flow (no red badges, delayed notifications).
• A policy that redefines value (rewarding rest, transparency, quality over volume).

Your mission as a designer or conscious user is to identify those low-effort, high-impact levers.

Framework — The Leverage Ladder

1. Events: React to single incidents (low leverage).
2. Patterns: Recognise repeated trends (medium leverage).
3. Structures: Redesign how things connect (high leverage).
4. Paradigms: Shift the underlying worldview (deepest leverage).

Events tell you where to look. Patterns tell you what repeats. Structures tell you why it repeats. Paradigms tell you who you are while it repeats.

Exercise — Leverage Scan

Pick a platform or habit you want to improve.

EVENTS:
What small things bother you each day?
______________________________________

PATTERNS:
Which frustrations repeat weekly?
______________________________________

STRUCTURES:
What rules or designs cause those patterns?
______________________________________

PARADIGM:
What belief system keeps this structure alive?
(e.g., “more engagement = success”)
______________________________________

Which level can you act on THIS week?
______________________________________
  

3. Playing with Futures — Mental Simulations for Ethical Design

Scenario thinking becomes powerful when you play with futures — not to guess, but to test.

Use imagination as a design tool:

• “If this feature succeeded too well, what could go wrong?”
• “If everyone in society used this, what behaviour would become normal?”
• “If this disappeared overnight, what problem would reappear?”

Simulation Template — The Future Back Loop

Choose one feature or habit.

1) Imagine it's 2030. The feature has shaped a generation.
What do people say about it?
______________________________________

2) What positive behaviour has it scaled?
______________________________________

3) What unintended side effect emerged?
______________________________________

4) If you could go back to 2025, what small design
or rule would prevent that harm?
______________________________________

Congratulations — you just found a leverage point.
  

4. Ethics of Leverage — Designing Without Domination

Every leverage point is a form of power. You can use it to help people grow — or to quietly control them.

Ethical leverage design:

• Strengthens autonomy, not dependency.
• Encourages awareness, not trance.
• Builds agency, not obedience.

The real test: Would you still build this if the user fully understood how it influences them?

Ethical Filter

Before using a leverage tactic, ask:

- Does this increase or decrease human choice?
- Does it make people wiser about themselves?
- Would I explain this mechanism to my family proudly?

If any answer is “no”, pause and redesign.
  

5. Scenario Mapping Across Systems

Scenario thinking isn’t limited to apps. You can map futures for education, finance, governance, media, or health.

• Education: What happens when AI tutors replace teachers?
• Finance: How do decentralised markets alter trust?
• Health: How will biometric tracking change identity?
• Governance: What does democracy look like when attention is the vote?

Each domain holds different leverage points, but the same principles apply.

Cross-Domain Exercise — Leverage Web

Pick 3 systems that overlap in your life.
(e.g., social media, education, finance)

For each:
SYSTEM:
____________________________
CURRENT DRIVER:
____________________________
KEY VULNERABILITY:
____________________________
FUTURE OPPORTUNITY:
____________________________

Now draw lines — how do they influence each other?
Where can a small change ripple through all three?
______________________________________
  

6. Builder Mode — Strategic Scenario Deck

Builders can use scenario decks as creative tools for design foresight. Create cards for each:

• Trend
• Emotion
• Technology
• Ethical dilemma
• Behavioural outcome

Shuffle 3–5 cards and brainstorm: “What world does this combination create?” The goal is to strengthen imagination before harm happens.

Example Deck Seeds

• Trend: Infinite AI companionship
• Emotion: Envy
• Technology: Neural input devices
• Ethical dilemma: Consent at scale
• Behavioural outcome: Self-editing personality

Combine and analyse for insight: How does technology alter who people believe themselves to be?

7. User Mode — Foresight as Personal Growth

You don’t need to be a designer to benefit from foresight. Scenario thinking is also a mirror for your own digital evolution.

Personal Foresight Journal

IMAGINE YOUR DIGITAL LIFE IN 2030.

- Which habits have survived?
- Which ones feel outdated?
- Which ones became toxic?
- Which ones became sacred?

If your 2030 self could advise you now,
what would they say?

______________________________________
______________________________________
______________________________________
  

8. Future-Proof AI Prompt — “Scenario Designer for Human Futures”

Use this prompt to make AI a foresight companion for long-term behaviour and ethical design.

You are my "Scenario Designer for Human Futures"
for Digital Psychology & Behavioural Design — Part 2B:
Scenario Thinking & Leverage Design — Playing with Futures.

GOAL
Help me:
- identify signals and drivers shaping digital behaviour,
- run scenario simulations for different futures,
- locate leverage points for ethical change,
- design resilient systems that enhance human autonomy.

ASK ME FIRST
1) Which domain are we exploring today?
   (e.g., media, AI, education, finance, health)
2) What time horizon? (1 year, 5 years, 10+)
3) What’s my role? (user, builder, policymaker, educator)

PROCESS
1) Identify 3–5 current signals.
2) Derive deeper drivers and trajectories.
3) Build 2–3 scenarios:
   - optimistic,
   - baseline,
   - cautionary.
4) For each scenario:
   - describe key behaviours and consequences,
   - identify leverage points for positive intervention.
5) Recommend design or lifestyle strategies for me
   to thrive ethically in all futures.

STYLE
- Analytical but creative.
- Encourage systems awareness and responsibility.
- No doom; focus on realistic foresight and agency.

LIMITS
- Avoid deterministic predictions.
- No investment or legal advice.
- Always include at least one positive scenario.
    

Version: v1.0 · Track: Digital Psychology & Behavioural Design · Module: Part 2B — Scenario Thinking & Leverage Design: Playing with Futures · Brand: Made2MasterAI™ · Educational only; not clinical, medical, financial, or legal advice.

Apply It Now (5 minutes)

1. One action: What will you do in 5 minutes that reflects this essay? (write 1 sentence)
2. When & where: If it’s [time] at [place], I will [action].
3. Proof: Who will you show or tell? (name 1 person)

You are my Micro-Action Coach. Based on this essay’s theme, ask me:
1) My 5-minute action,
2) Exact time/place,
3) A friction check (what could stop me? give a tiny fix),
4) A 3-question nightly reflection.
Then generate a 3-day plan and a one-line identity cue I can repeat.

🧠 AI Processing Reality… Commit now, then come back tomorrow and log what changed.