Systems Thinking & Interdisciplinary Logic · Part 2B — Scenario Thinking & Leverage Design: Playing with Futures

In 2A you learned to map systems. In 2B you learn to move those maps through time—exploring multiple futures and designing leverage that survives uncertainty.

A system map is a photo. Scenario thinking turns it into a film. Leverage design decides which scenes you want to influence most.

1. Why Scenario Thinking, Not Prediction?

Prediction asks: “What will happen?” Scenario thinking asks: “What could reasonably happen—and what would I do in each case?”

In complex systems:

• Small changes can have large effects (nonlinearity).
• People adapt to your actions (feedback).
• External shocks arrive unexpectedly (context shifts).

So instead of one future, we work with a portfolio of plausible futures—and choose moves that age well across them.

2. From Map to Scenarios: The Basic Move

Take your map from Part 2A. You already have:

• Key variables (3–7).
• Influence links (A → B, + or −).
• Feedback loops (R and B).
• Stocks, flows, and delays.

Now we add:

• Driving forces: trends or uncertainties that push your system (e.g., interest rates, platform changes, health constraints).
• Scenario axes: 2–3 key uncertainties that define a space of futures.
• Storylines: short, vivid descriptions of how your system behaves under each scenario.

Exercise — Identify Driving Forces

SYSTEM I’M USING (from 2A):
______________________________________

INTERNAL FORCES (inside my control or influence):
- ____________________________________________
- ____________________________________________
- ____________________________________________

EXTERNAL FORCES (outside my control):
- ____________________________________________
- ____________________________________________
- ____________________________________________

WHICH 2–3 FORCES ARE MOST UNCERTAIN BUT HIGH IMPACT?
______________________________________
______________________________________
______________________________________
  

3. Building a Simple Scenario Grid

A classic tool is a 2×2 grid based on two key uncertainties. For example:

• High vs Low economic stability.
• High vs Low platform dependence.

This gives four quadrants—four distinct futures your system might live in.

Template — 2×2 Scenario Grid (Text Version)

UNCERTAINTY #1 (horizontal axis, left → right):
Low __________________________________ High

UNCERTAINTY #2 (vertical axis, bottom → top):
Low
|
|
|
High

LABEL EACH QUADRANT:

Top-right (High #1, High #2):
Scenario name: _______________________

Top-left (Low #1, High #2):
Scenario name: _______________________

Bottom-right (High #1, Low #2):
Scenario name: _______________________

Bottom-left (Low #1, Low #2):
Scenario name: _______________________
  

4. Writing Scenario Storylines

A scenario is not a novel. It’s a compact story about:

• What pressures the system feels (loops being activated).
• How key stocks change over time.
• What “success” and “failure” look like in that world.

Storyline Template (Per Scenario)

SCENARIO NAME:
______________________________________

TIME HORIZON (e.g., 2 years, 5 years):
______________________________________

1) HOW DO KEY STOCKS TREND?
(e.g., savings, energy, audience trust, skill level)
- _____________________________________
- _____________________________________

2) WHICH LOOPS DOMINATE?
- Reinforcing loops that grow stronger:
  _____________________________________
- Balancing loops that limit growth:
  _____________________________________

3) WHAT DOES "A GOOD OUTCOME" LOOK LIKE HERE?
__________________________________________
__________________________________________

4) WHAT DOES "A BAD OUTCOME" LOOK LIKE HERE?
__________________________________________
__________________________________________
  

5. Leverage Design: Robust, Fragile, and Antifragile Moves

Once you have 3–4 scenarios, you can evaluate options:

• Fragile moves: work in one scenario, fail badly in others.
• Robust moves: perform acceptably in most scenarios.
• Antifragile moves: improve when volatility or stress rises.

Systems thinking helps you design more robust (and sometimes antifragile) moves, by looking at:

• Which stocks you should grow regardless of scenario (e.g., skills, trust, buffers).
• Which risky dependencies you can reduce (over-reliance on one platform, client, or supplier).
• Which feedback loops you can strengthen or weaken deliberately.

Exercise — Option Heatmap

LIST 3–5 POSSIBLE MOVES:

Move A:
_______________________________________
Move B:
_______________________________________
Move C:
_______________________________________
Move D:
_______________________________________
Move E:
_______________________________________

FOR EACH MOVE, SCORE (−2 = terrible, 0 = neutral, +2 = excellent):

Scenario 1: ________  A:__ B:__ C:__ D:__ E:__
Scenario 2: ________  A:__ B:__ C:__ D:__ E:__
Scenario 3: ________  A:__ B:__ C:__ D:__ E:__
Scenario 4: ________  A:__ B:__ C:__ D:__ E:__

WHICH MOVE IS:
- Most robust (best average score)?
- Most fragile (best in one, terrible in others)?
- Potentially antifragile (improves under stress/volatility)?
  

6. Linking Back to Your Map: Where Does the Move Touch the System?

Every move you choose should:

• Clearly touch specific variables in your map (2A).
• Change flows or feedback loops in a way you can describe.
• Be observable: you can tell if you actually did it and if anything changed.

Template — From Move to Structure

CHOSEN MOVE:
______________________________________

WHICH VARIABLES DOES IT DIRECTLY CHANGE?
- (e.g., "time spent in deep work", "platform dependence", "cash buffer")
______________________________________
______________________________________

WHAT FLOWS DOES IT AFFECT?
- Increases / decreases which inflows/outflows?
______________________________________
______________________________________

WHICH LOOPS DOES IT STRENGTHEN OR WEAKEN?
Loop name / type: _____________________
Effect (strengthen / weaken): _________
  

7. Time Scales: Short, Medium, Long

Systems behave differently at different time scales. Scenario thinking should reflect that:

• Short-term (days–weeks): noise, implementation friction, emotional swings.
• Medium-term (months–1–2 years): habit consolidation, relationship shifts, early structural changes.
• Long-term (3–10+ years): compounding, reputation, brand, culture, deep path dependence.

A powerful move might look unimpressive short-term but transformative long-term—especially if it grows a crucial stock (e.g., skill, trust, health).

Exercise — Three-Time-Scale Check

MOVE:
______________________________________

SHORT-TERM (0–3 MONTHS)
- Costs:
- Likely visible benefits:
- Risks:
______________________________________

MEDIUM-TERM (3–24 MONTHS)
- How might loops shift?
- Which stocks start compounding?
______________________________________

LONG-TERM (2–10 YEARS)
- If I keep this move alive, what could it build?
- Is this a stock I want my future self to inherit?
______________________________________
  

8. Using AI as a Scenario Partner (Without Giving Up Your Judgment)

A capable AI model can:

• Suggest additional driving forces you hadn’t considered.
• Generate vivid scenario storylines you can critique and refine.
• Stress-test your moves, highlighting blind spots and second-order effects.

But scenario work is not about outsourcing thinking. It’s about conversation. You bring:

• Local knowledge.
• Values and ethics.
• Risk tolerance and life context.

The model brings:

• Pattern suggestions.
• Edge cases and corner scenarios.
• Alternative framings of the same situation.

9. Future-Proof AI Prompt — “Scenario & Leverage Studio”

Use this prompt with any capable AI model over the next decade as a standing “studio assistant”.

You are my "Scenario & Leverage Studio" for
"Systems Thinking & Interdisciplinary Logic — Part 2B (Scenario Thinking & Leverage Design)".

GOAL
Help me:
- turn one system map into 3–4 plausible futures,
- identify robust and antifragile moves,
- connect each move back to levers in the structure.

ASK ME FIRST
1) Ask me to paste or describe my Part 2A system map:
   - variables,
   - key links,
   - main loops,
   - any known stocks/flows/delays.
2) Ask for my time horizon:
   - short (0–1 year),
   - medium (1–3 years),
   - long (3–10 years).
3) Ask what I care most about protecting or growing
   (e.g., health, reputation, cash buffer, learning, relationships).

PROCESS
1) Suggest 5–10 possible driving forces (internal + external).
2) Help me select 2 key uncertainties and build a 2×2 scenario grid.
3) For each scenario, co-write a short storyline:
   - how key stocks change,
   - which loops dominate,
   - what “good” and “bad” look like.
4) Help me brainstorm 3–7 possible moves.
5) Build an "option heatmap":
   - for each move, reason about how it performs in each scenario.
   - highlight robust and fragile moves.
6) For 1–2 chosen moves, trace:
   - which variables they affect,
   - which flows and loops they modify,
   - what to monitor over time.

STYLE
- Use plain, concrete language.
- Separate facts from guesses; mark speculative steps clearly.
- Ask clarifying questions when needed, but keep moving toward
  a small set of concrete options I can actually test.

LIMITS & SAFETY
- Keep suggestions within everyday life, work, learning, and business design.
- Do not give legal, medical, or investment advice.
- If I ask for those, remind me to consult qualified professionals,
  and restrict yourself to general educational patterns.
    

10. A 21-Day Scenario & Leverage Practice Plan

To make 2B real, you can run this 3-week protocol:

1. Week 1: Choose one important system (from 2A). Map 3–4 scenarios for a 2–3 year horizon.
2. Week 2: Brainstorm 5–7 moves. Build an option heatmap. Choose 1–2 robust moves.
3. Week 3: Implement the smallest, safest version of one move. Track 2–3 indicators related to your map.

At the end of 21 days, you’ll have:

• A living system map.
• A set of futures you’ve thought through.
• At least one structural experiment running in the real world.

11. How 2B Prepares You for the Rest of the Track

After 2B, you’re no longer just describing systems; you are designing with them:

• You think in futures, not single-point predictions.
• You choose actions based on structure, not vibes.
• You can talk about risk and uncertainty calmly and precisely.

Later modules will build on this by:

• Combining scenario work with ethics (what futures should we move toward?).
• Integrating with financial systems (capital allocation across scenarios).
• Linking to cognitive engineering (protecting your mind from panic when futures change).

Version: v1.0 · Track: Systems Thinking & Interdisciplinary Logic · Module: Part 2B (Scenario Thinking & Leverage Design) · Brand: Made2MasterAI™ · Educational only; not clinical, financial, or legal advice.

Apply It Now (5 minutes)

1. One action: What will you do in 5 minutes that reflects this essay? (write 1 sentence)
2. When & where: If it’s [time] at [place], I will [action].
3. Proof: Who will you show or tell? (name 1 person)

You are my Micro-Action Coach. Based on this essay’s theme, ask me:
1) My 5-minute action,
2) Exact time/place,
3) A friction check (what could stop me? give a tiny fix),
4) A 3-question nightly reflection.
Then generate a 3-day plan and a one-line identity cue I can repeat.

🧠 AI Processing Reality… Commit now, then come back tomorrow and log what changed.